Copper price tailwinds remain strong, but highlight ongoing mining sector cost inflation and near-term headwinds for Fe and Al; preview June-Q/FY27

Research evidence excerpt

Copper price tailwinds remain strong, but highlight ongoing mining sector cost inflation and near-term headwinds for Fe and Al; preview June-Q/FY27

Equity Research

8 July 2026 | 6:45PM AEST

AUSTRALIA METALS & MINING

Copper price tailwinds remain strong, but highlight ongoing mining

sector cost inflation and near-term headwinds for Fe and Al; preview

June-Q/FY27

n Copper price tailwinds for base metals sector: The large cap diversified miners Paul Young

+61(2)9321-8302 |

hit all-time highs during the June Q, trading up to ~8.5x EV/EBITDA (NTM basis), paul.young1@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

well above the 25-yr historical average of 6.5-7x, due to record copper and near

Hugo Nicolaci

record aluminium prices and ongoing resilience in iron ore. The earnings upgrade +61(2)9321-8323 |

hugo.nicolaci@gs.com

cycle for the majority of the Aus bulks, base metals, rare earths and steel stocks Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

remains strong, and the outlook for copper over the next few years looks Chris Bulgin +61(2)9321-8936 | chris.bulgin@gs.com

compelling with the tightness in the refined metal market and ongoing mine Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Dosanjh supply issues set to continue. We think higher realised metal prices driven by high Marcus | +61(2)9321-8780

metal premiums, provisional pricing uplifts and lower smelter treatment charges marcus.dosanjh@gs.comGoldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

will be a positive for the base metal producers in the June Q.

n Near-term headwinds for Fe and Al, and upside risk to mining sector costs:

Outside of resilience in copper, US steel, and rare earths though, we think there

are near-term downside risks to iron ore from slowing Chinese steel demand and

coking coal shortages, and aluminium and lithium due to a rebalancing market. A