Greater China Real Estate: Better surprise vector: mainland China over HK developers

Research evidence excerpt

Greater China Real Estate: Better surprise vector: mainland China over HK developers

8 July 2026

Greater China Real Estate EquitiesREMD

Better surprise vector: mainland China over HK

developers China

◆ Decoupling the trade: We explain why we prefer mainland Michelle Kwok*

China developers over HK players after a valuation reset Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

michellekwok@hsbc.com.hk

◆ Our core thesis is that mainland China property offers more +852 2996 6918

scope for upside surprises relative to Hong Kong Oliver Yu*

Analyst, Asia Real Estate

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

◆ Prefer CRL and C&D, both rated Buy; landbank oliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk

replenishment a near-term catalyst +852 2288 2050

Stephen Wang*, CFA

We now prefer mainland China developers over Hong Kong property after the The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited stephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk

valuation reset. Hong Kong’s early rebound has pushed expectations too high +852 2284 1675

despite a seemingly steadier backdrop (Hong Kong Real Estate – 2H outlook, Brian Yu*

Raymond Liu, 7 July 2026) while mainland China offers a more asymmetric set-up Associate, Asia Real Estate The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

with greater scope for upside surprises that investors demand. brian.d.yu@hsbc.com.hk

+852 28227281

More upside: Mainland China developers remain priced for doubt, but we argue the

sector offers potential upside in primary contracted sales, margin (driven by lower * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

impairment and higher contracted margin) and earnings recovery. We calculate that if