J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Buy: Overseas momentum strengthens the growth engine

Research evidence excerpt

J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Buy: Overseas momentum strengthens the growth engine

ahead of the 5% industry growth rate from 14.00

January to May 2026, as per State Post Bureau of China (SPB), due to improving

10.70

network stability, a better customer mix, progress in historically weaker categories

such as apparel, beauty and 3C electronics, and SME penetration. 07/25 01/26 07/267.40

Latin America scaled quickly. Other Markets volume rose to 211m parcels, up Target price: 13.20 High: 12.00 Low: 8.08 Current: 9.53

136.5% y-o-y, with Latin America the key contributor given low e-commerce Source: Refinitiv IBES, HSBC estimates

penetration and accelerating platform cooperation offering massive headroom.

Mercado Libre has contributed to over 100k daily parcels and J&T expects to gain Parash Jain*

Global Head of Transport & Logistics Research

more. Parcel volume growth in the Middle East slowed to single digits in 2Q26 due to The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

regional conflicts. J&T sees US and Europe entry remains conditional on compliance parashjain@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6717

and volume thresholds, and adopts an asset-light model in the initial expansion.

Deepak Maurya*, CFA

Analyst, Asia Transport

We raise 2026e volume by 3% and revenue by 7%, offset by higher costs, leading The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

to muted changes in net profits. Our EBITDA estimates are comparable with deepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2822 4292

consensus in 2026e but 7-9% ahead in 2027-28e.

Bruce Chu*, CFA

Reiterate Buy with unchanged HKD13.20 TP: We view J&T Express as a successful Analyst, Asia Transport

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited