South Africa Food Producers: El Niño may test pricing power again

Research evidence excerpt

South Africa Food Producers: El Niño may test pricing power again

d impact costs. South Africa enters this

El Niño transition with meaningful near-term buffers. Recent La Niña seasons have left

healthier soil moisture and dam levels, and current crop estimates point to strong domestic

availability across key summer grains and oilseeds, which should reduce the risk of an

immediate local supply shock. However, these buffers don’t fully insulate food producers

from an El Niño-driven repricing in global markets. A meaningful share of the processed-

food inputs is imported (wheat, rice, coffee/cocoa, sugar and palm oil), meaning weather

disruptions in exporting regions can translate into higher input costs via global benchmarks,

the ZAR and import parity, even if local maize remains supportive early in the cycle.

We do not make forecast changes as the weather outlook is still evolving and there is no

sustained forward pricing pressure on the 2026/27 crop. We look to prior El Niño cycles to

benchmark how PMR, TBS and AVI have historically navigated input-cost shocks (pg 8). In

an El Niño event, PMR should be relatively more defensive given its staples bias (greater

sensitivity to wheat), although RFG increases exposure to horticulture-driven variability.

TBS has higher exposure to a broad commodity basket and local agricultural inputs but

enters this period with stronger self-help momentum and structural efficiencies that should No country for bears

support resilience. AVI remains the strongest margin manager in our coverage, with lower The 24th edition of the EM Sentiment Survey

direct exposure to SA crop outcomes but higher sensitivity to imported soft commodities

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and FX, with disciplined hedging and pricing power being key mitigants.