Colombia: June Inflation in Line with Expectations; Moderating Labor-Intensive Services Pressures

Research evidence excerpt

Colombia: June Inflation in Line with Expectations; Moderating Labor-Intensive Services Pressures

Economics Research

8 July 2026 | 2:50AM EDT

Colombia: June Inflation in Line with Expectations; Moderating

Labor-Intensive Services Pressures

BOTTOM LINE: Headline inflation recorded a 0.39% reading in June, a modest 1bp Santiago Tellez

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above the Bloomberg consensus. The reading was boosted by food and energy, with santiago.tellez@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

slowing labor intensive ex-rent services. Core ex-food inflation printed at 0.32%,

below consensus. The policy-sensitive core ex-food & regulated also tracked at

0.32%, and core services at 0.33%, both decelerating from the previous month. On a

year-on-year-basis, most measures remained on an upward trend: headline inflation

rose by 30bp to 6.14%, core ex-food by 18bp to 5.98%, core ex-food & regulated by

2bp to 6.01%. Core services was the exception, with a modest 1bp decline to 7.03%.

Headline inflation overshot Banrep’s staff forecast for June by 30bp, but core

ex-food & regulated inflation undershot it by 20bp.

Our tracking estimate for the June headline inflation reading stands at 0.3%—

embedding higher electricity and gas tariffs—and for core ex-food & regulated at

0.4%. These are consistent with year-on-year headline inflation staying around 6.1%

and a 10bp increase in core ex-food & regulated to 6.2%. We maintain our end-2026

headline inflation forecast of 6.5% with risks skewed to the upside. We see this print

and the upward trend of most inflation measures as consistent with a final hike of

50bp at the July MPC meeting.

The bulk of inflationary impact of the minimum wage on labor-intensive services is

likely mostly behind, and the labor-intensive ex-rent services annual inflation is