July 8: Inflation Concerns Return

Research evidence excerpt

July 8: Inflation Concerns Return

Update

July 8, 2026 11:35 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | North America Molly Nickolin

Strategist

July 8: Inflation Concerns Return Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

US-Iran tensions lifted oil and breakevens; Fed minutes Sofia Palacios

reinforced higher-for-longer pricing; Treasuries sold off but 10y StrategistSofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

auction demand capped losses; AI tech outperformed as cyclicals Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

lagged; Europe underperformed; EMFX weakened; DXY at Gek Teng Khoo

100.99 (-0.0%); US 10y at 4.58 (+2.8bp). Gek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

Higher oil prices revived inflation concerns, pushing global front ends higher and Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Hiromu Uezato

weighing on cyclicals while AI-related tech limited the broader US equity

drawdown. Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

Developed Markets Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Nimish M Prabhune

• US rates bear-flattened as renewed Middle East tensions and firmer oil Strategist

Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862

prices lifted inflation-risk premia (2y: +3.3bp; 30y: +1.6bp). Brent rose

5.2% to $78.02/bbl and briefly traded above $80 after President Trump said Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Jasper Knyphausen

the US-Iran ceasefire was effectively over and US forces began additional Strategist

operations. The June FOMC minutes added to the rates pressure, with a few Jasper.Knyphausen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2185

officials seeing a case for raising rates. The $39bn 10y reopening stopped