Rewiring the Home: A Roadmap of Appliances in AI Diffusion: China‘s Emerging Frontiers

Research evidence excerpt

Rewiring the Home: A Roadmap of Appliances in AI Diffusion: China‘s Emerging Frontiers

Asia Pacific Insight

July 8, 2026 09:04 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina's Emerging Frontiers Lillian Lou

Equity Analyst

Rewiring the Home: A Roadmap Lillian.Lou@morganstanley.comAndy Meng, CFA +852 2848-6502

Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7689

of Appliances in AI Diffusion Sheng Zhong

Sheng.Zhong@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7821

AI is shifting China home appliances from replacement hardware Hildy Ling

to serviceable household infrastructure: an over US$120bn EquityHildy.Ling@morganstanley.comAnalyst +852 2239-7834

market moving to AI devices, connected ecosystems, higher Carlos Liu, CFA

ASPs, recurring services and smarter manufacturing, rather than ResearchCarlos.Liu@morganstanley.comAssociate +852 2848-5206

near-term humanoid replacement. Carlos Chai

Research Associate

Carlos.Chai@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3180

Key Takeaways

AI expands a mature market: China appliances+AI services grow 4% CAGR to US

$150bn by 2030; Smart/AI segment +12% CAGR to ~75% of the TAM.

RVCs are the standout near-term beneficiary, with 16% CAGR over 2025–30.

China/Hong Kong Consumer

Over the next 3–5 years, AI will shift the industry from hardware sales to

Asia Pacific

ecosystems, services and smarter manufacturing. Industry View In-Line

Incumbents should remain the primary winners, leveraging scale, brands, global

supply chains and service networks despite new entrants.

Longer term, agentic AI and humanoids could become disruptive; our preferred

names are Midea, Haier, Xiaomi, Roborock and Ecovacs.

AI expands the home appliance value pool. We forecast China's home appliance

market to grow from US$123bn in 2025 to US$150bn by 2030 (4% CAGR), with