1Q F27 Preview: Cloud beat, EBITA better than feared

Research evidence excerpt

1Q F27 Preview: Cloud beat, EBITA better than feared

IdeaM

Risk Reward – Alibaba Group Holding (BABA.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2026 2027e 2028e 2029e

China retail marketplaces GMV

8,160 8,241 8,489 8,913

(Rmb, mn)

Take rate (%) 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Revenue growth, especially in core e-commerce RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Mar 2027e

in China Better core e-commerce monetization, driving

Monetization rate (i.e., Alibaba's Chinese retail earnings growth upside Sales / 1,124,656.3

marketplace revenue/GMV) Faster enterprise digitalization, re-accelerating Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

Non-GAAP EBITA margins cloud revenue growth (Rmb, mn) consensus data for this metric

Stronger AI demand to drive cloud revenue

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

143,713 APAC, ex Japan, Mainland More intense competition 0-10% EBITDA China and India Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying Higher-than-expected reinvestment costs (Rmb, mn)

consensus data for this metric 0-10% Europe ex UK Weaker consumption amid a slower post-Covid

0-10% India recovery

0-10% Japan Slower pace of enterprise digitalization pace

0-10% Latin America Regulation - additional scrutiny of Internet 75,018

0-10% MEA platforms Net income

0-10% UK (Rmb, mn) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

10-20% North America consensus data for this metric

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 50-60% Mainland China

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 80.3%

View explanation of regional hierarchies here 30.3 HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.7x EPS

(Rmb) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

HF Sector Net Exposure 11.1% consensus data for this metric

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund