H1 miss. Strategic Actions Underway. Reducing Land Spend, Exiting Unsold Private Units.

Research evidence excerpt

H1 miss. Strategic Actions Underway. Reducing Land Spend, Exiting Unsold Private Units.

Update

July 8, 2026 07:08 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MVistry Group PLC | Europe Peter Ajose-Adeogun

Equity Analyst

H1 miss. Strategic Actions Peter.Ajose-Adeogun@morganstanley.comCedar Ekblom, CFA +44 20 7677-1618

Cedar.Ekblom@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4623

Underway. Reducing Land

Vistry Group PLC (VTYV.L, VTY LN)

Building & Construction | United KingdomSpend, Exiting Unsold Private

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target 270pUnits. Shr price, close (Jul 7, 2026) 252p

52-Week Range 746-220p

Mkt cap, curr (mn) £853

Reaction to earnings Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* £(65)

EV, curr (mn)* £998

Unchanged Meaningful shortfall Meaningful revision lower

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

2H expected profitability requires hockey stick recovery in earnings. Risk is to the

downside on near-term expectations.

Full CEO review planned for September. Plans to focus on: 1) reshaping land bank

to align with partnership model, 2) lowering WIP through improved site planning,

3) exiting the part exchange model, 4) improving mix (smaller affordable private

home exposure, better regional focus).

A wholesale review of the business underway, could mark the low in shares but a

challenging market backdrop and high leverage make execution even tougher.

Equal-weight despite depressed valuation (0.3x P/B) given prolonged operational

issues.

H1 metrics. Miss on completions and profit: Completions 6100, -11% YoY, -9% vs.

MSe, -11% vs. consensus (Visible Alpha). Operating profit -£30mn, vs. £125mn in H1

2025.