June quarter preview – less uncertainty, but some big questions

Research evidence excerpt

June quarter preview – less uncertainty, but some big questions

Equity Research

8 July 2026

European Airlines

June quarter preview – less

uncertainty, but some big

European Transportationquestions

NEUTRAL

Maintain ratings, most PTs raised. Estimate increases on Unchanged

lower fuel and slightly brighter revenue for summer. Key European Transportation Andrew Lobbenberg

debate around the pace and scale of the Asian and cargo +44 (0)20 3555 0639

windfall reversal. M&A developments add interest. We remain andrew.lobbenberg@barclays.comBarclays, UK

cautious towards the Asian winners, more constructive on IAG Rahul Singh

+91 (0)22 6175 2529and LCCs.

rahul.xb.singh@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Maintain our ratings as we advance beyond the war: Airline shares and the prospects for the

Marco Limite

airline industry remain volatile and hostage to the unpredictable developments around the Iran

+39 (0)2 6372 2582

and Ukraine conflicts. A quarter ago things looked grim. Following the ceasefire agreement in marco.limite@barclays.com

Iran and airlines declaring the end of fuel shortage risks, the outlook for airlines is brighter. The BBI, Milan

risk of material cuts to winter capacity has gone. Had the elevated fuel prices that we saw

Emilie Fung

during the Iran War endured, we think the combination of falling hedge protection and lower

+44 (0)20 3555 2335

seasonal profitability would have led to dramatic reductions in flying. We think consumer emilie.fung@barclays.com

confidence in travel brightens. Our most recent demand tracker showed that the trend in Barclays, UK

Barclays credit card spending on airlines remained negative but inflected for the better in June.

Helene Iselin

We increase estimates significantly as we apply the current forward fuel curve that is far below