Resume at OW: All Core Businesses Strong; Upcoming Events Positive for Shares

Research evidence excerpt

Resume at OW: All Core Businesses Strong; Upcoming Events Positive for Shares

IdeaM

EC, Fintech, and Mobile All Driving Earnings Growth;

Entering a Re-rating Phase

Why we are OW: Three core businesses improving, entering earnings growth phase

We are OW as e-commerce (EC), fintech, and mobile are all moving into a phase of

earnings improvement. EC continues to grow steadily despite market maturity, fintech

remains a core earnings driver, and mobile profitability is improving. Consolidated non-

GAAP OP turned positive for the first time in a 1Q this fiscal year since Rakuten’s full-scale

MNO entry.

What’s not priced in: The market remains cautious on mobile sustainability and the

financial burden, leaving the potential acceleration in group earnings recovery

underpriced. A possible extension of the KDDI roaming agreement and synergies from the

fintech restructuring also provide upside.

EC: Stable growth despite market maturity; monetization opportunities expanding

Though Japan’s merchandise e-commerce (EC) market is maturing, Rakuten’s EC business

continues to grow steadily, supported by Rakuten Ichiba’s strong customer base and

points ecosystem. Monetization across advertising and travel should become increasingly

important. AI-driven improvements in search, promotions, and ad efficiency could also

support medium-term transaction growth.

Mobile: Net additions and service revenue growth driving profitability improvement

Mobile profitability continues to improve, supported by subscriber growth, higher service

revenue, and cost discipline. As major carriers move toward price increases, Rakuten

Mobile’s low pricing, unlimited data, and ecosystem linkage could be reappraised.

Fintech: A major stable growth driver centered on cards, banking, and securities