2Q26 Preview: Scattered Squalls

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: Scattered Squalls

ary, we expect a solid 2Q beat, but without flowing yield upside through to FY guide,

we expect it will be judged a mixed report, even with the EPS windfall from fuel, against

sufficiently lowered expectations.

NCLH. We make only modest adjustments to our estimates for NCLH. We believe guidance was

appropriately lowered following the significant reset to FY26 yield expectations in the 1Q and

view a tightening of the FY range as more likely than a positive (or negative) revision to

guidance here. We leave our 2Q yield estimate unchanged at -3.6% FXN and now forecast $0.41

of EPS after incorporating lower fuel. We adjust 3Q yields ~50bps higher and 4Q ~50bps lower,

netting out to -4.0% FXN for the year, unchanged from prior and in line with the midpoint of the

company's guidance (-3% to -5%). We land at $1.76 of FY26 EPS, reflecting the benefit of lower

fuel costs (immaterial FX impact).

VIK. Our VIK yield estimates are unchanged for 2026, while our EPS estimates move up on lower

fuel (as described above). We continue to forecast 5.7% net yield growth in the 2Q and ~5% on

average in the back half, delivering 5.8% growth for FY26. After factoring in lower fuel prices and

somewhat lower interest expense, we land at $1.27 in 2Q EPS and $3.28 for FY26, up from $1.24

and $3.18 prior. VIK’s 2027 advanced bookings pricing +11% y/y remains the most impressive

cruise-related operating stat we’ve seen all year, which goes to show the lack of any pricing

sensitivity that exists in its core customer segment. We believe a couple of points of that growth

are easier comps, which should fade throughout the selling season, while a few points of that

growth are VIK deliberately taking more pricing in the expectation of higher flight prices that VIK