Heidelberg: Best idea for 3Q26 - Pricing a bear case, ignoring the ETS upside - rerating ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Heidelberg: Best idea for 3Q26 - Pricing a bear case, ignoring the ETS upside - rerating ahead

8 July 2026

Pujarini Ghosh, CFA

+44 20 7676 6807

European Construction & Building Materials pujarini.ghosh@bernsteinsg.com

Victor AcitoresHeidelberg Materials

+34 915 893 901

Rating victor.acitores@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Tobias Fromme

+44 20 7676 6875

Price Target tobias.fromme@bernsteinsg.com

HEI.GY 230.00 EUR Specialist Sales

Sara Bellenda

+44 20 7762 1867

sara.bellenda@bernsteinsg.com

Heidelberg: Best idea for 3Q26 - Pricing a bear case, ignoring the

ETS upside - rerating ahead

We select Heidelberg as our Best Idea for 3Q26 as it offers the most compelling tactical

Close Date 7 Jul 2026

opportunity in our Building Materials coverage. Following significant underperformance

HEI.GY Close Price (EUR) 174.20

vs peers since the ETS debate intensified in Feb, the market is effectively pricing a

Price Target (EUR) 230.00

highly improbable “black sky” scenario in which European pricing power collapses and

Upside/(Downside) 32%

decarbonisation creates little value. This report presents our proprietary ETS scenario analysis,

52-Week Range 241.80/159.70

quantifying the impact on pricing, margins and valuation under multiple policy outcomes. Our

EDME 1,606.65

conclusion is clear: downside is largely reflected in the current share price, while the upcoming

FYE Dec

ETS review, Q2 results and improving German backdrop provide meaningful rerating catalysts.

Div Yield 2.1%

The market is pricing an overly pessimistic ETS outcome. Heidelberg has the highest Market Cap (EUR) (M) 30,723

sensitivity to European decarbonisation policy among cement majors and has therefore EV (EUR) (M) 38,348

experienced the sharpest derating due to the ETS debate.