EUROPEAN CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING MATERIALS

Research evidence excerpt

EUROPEAN CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING MATERIALS

draft ETS benchmarks on 11 May—setting With policy dilution post 2030 (free allwances ending in 2039)

the clinker benchmark at 657kg CO₂/t of grey cement clinker for Under current policy (free allowances ending in 2034)

2026–30—and Member States subsequently voted in favour on 15

June, most of the uncertainty surrounding Phase 4 of the ETS (2026– Source: EU press, Bernstein analysis and estimates

30) was effectively removed. There remains a small residual risk until EXHIBIT 4: As free allocations decline sharply, we estimate

the legislation is formally enacted and enters into force, a process cement prices will need to rise by roughly 5–15% between

that typically takes around three months (implying implementation by 2028 and 2030

mid-August), although this timeline could be accelerated, as recently

proposed by the Climate Change Committee.

Annual cement price inflation for full

pass through of carbon costs forNext Friday, the EC is preparing to propose changes only to ETS

marginal producer assuming €120/t

Phase 5 (2030–40), as per current signals from Brussels and cement price and €75/t carbon price

not touching the pre-2030 phase 4 with proposals expected to 15%

address: how free allocation will work for non-CBAM sectors after

2030, how to ensure sufficient allowance availability beyond 2030

12%

and a range of other structural reforms. For the cement sector (and

other industrial sectors), the most consequential element remains 5.1%

9% CAGR

the free allowance reduction pathway. As shown in Exhibit 3, free under

allowances fall off a cliff between 2028 and 2030. This period is currrent

likely to be the key margin expansion point for Europe's major cement 6% policy 3.4% CAGR with policy