Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT.O): Pullback Opportunity; Lifting TP to $28

Research evidence excerpt

Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT.O): Pullback Opportunity; Lifting TP to $28

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08 Jul 2026 00:50:14 ET │ 16 pages

Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT.O)

Pullback Opportunity; Lifting TP to $28

CITI'S TAKE

Shares have retreated ~25% on AI/HPC over capacity concerns, we think

offering a potentially enhanced buying opportunity for investors. While BTC’s

~6.5% QoQ decline (down ~50% vs highs) adds some noise considering Buy / High Risk

RIOT’s holdings, reports of a major hyperscaler's plan to monetize excess GPU Price (07 Jul 26 16:00) US$21.17

compute capacity has reignited an AI/HPC oversupply debate. Yet we agree

that aggregate demand remains ahead of supply with leasing now focused on Target price US$28.00↑

2028–2030 deliveries. We update our model for Citi’s revised BTC forecast from US$21.00

(base case NTM lowered from $112k to $82k) and update our SOTPs raising Expected share price return 32.3%turnkey-ready capacity from 450 MWs to 600 MWs given development

progress, offset by a lower BTC forecast. We maintain our Buy/HR rating and Expected dividend yield 0.0%

increase our SOTP-based TP from $21 to $28. Expected total return 32.3%

Market Cap US$8,005M

AI/HPC Oversupply Narrative Requires Nuance — Citi analyst Mike Rollins offers

important context: "we still believe aggregate demand is ahead of supply with data

center leasing now starting to focus on 2028–2030 deliveries." (see: Meta Compute

Unlocks Capacity) This forward-looking demand skew is significant. The decision by

Price Performancelarge infrastructure builders to potentially resell capacity is less a signal of structural

oversupply and more a strategic capital recycling — with leading hyperscalers (RIC: RIOT.O, BB: RIOT US)

projecting $100s of billions of cumulative CapEx the next few years, underscoring