Expect no equity story inflection at H1 results, retain Underperform

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Expect no equity story inflection at H1 results, retain Underperform

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Vinci

Expect no equity story inflection at H1

results, retain Underperform

Maintain Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 124.00 EUR | Price: 127.90 EUR

H1’26: earnings growth appears relatively muted 06 July 2026

We preview Vinci’s H1’26 results, which are due on 29 July after market close. We Equity

anticipate quite muted growth, +2% for EBIT and +4% for net profit (YoY), and expect

the company to slightly soften the language around its FY’26 road and airport traffic Marcin Wojtal >>

performance, given higher oil prices in most of H1 and mixed French macro data points. Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

Still, the outlook appears set to be confirmed for Energies and Construction, as well as +44 20 7996 1070

for the group’s 2026E FCF (at €6bn). We do not anticipate any significant updates on marcin.wojtal@bofa.com

strategy or capital allocation. Market attention should soon shift to French taxes, given Jake McCarthy >>

Research Analyst

the proximity of the 2027 budget discussions (draft budget is due by 6 October 2026). MLI (UK)

jacob.mccarthy2@bofa.com

Our H1’26 forecasts are below consensus

We forecast H1’26 group EBIT at €4,213mn, vs VA consensus at €4,406mn and BBG

consensus at €4,264mn. For net attributable profit, our H1’26 estimate stands at Stock Data

€1,981mn vs VA consensus at €2,157mn and BBG consensus at €2,059mn.

Focusing on tax rates into September 2026 PricePrice (CommonObjective / ADR) 127.90124.00 EUREUR // 36.1936.23 USDUSD

The French corporate tax rate remains at 36.125% for another year in 2026, above the Date Established 24-Apr-2026 / 24-Apr-2026

statutory rate of 25.8%. Based on the wording of the current legislation, the surtax expires Investment Opinion A-3-7 / B-3-7

in 2027.