Global Technology: Accelerating LEO satellite launches; installed base to reach 24k/305k units by 2028E/31E; blue sky at 396k by 2031E

Research evidence excerpt

Global Technology: Accelerating LEO satellite launches; installed base to reach 24k/305k units by 2028E/31E; blue sky at 396k by 2031E

Equity Research

8 July 2026 | 6:22AM HKT

Global Technology: Accelerating LEO satellite launches; installed base to

reach 24k/ 305k units by 2028E/31E; blue sky at 396k by 2031E

Since launching our global Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite industry estimates in Feb Allen Chang

+852-2978-2930 |

2025, we have seen accelerated LEO satellite launches in 2025, with LEO satellite allen.k.chang@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

installed base at 10k units by 2025 (vs. our previous estimate of 9.7k). We expect this

Eric Sheridan

growth momentum to be sustained, supporting a global LEO satellite installed base +1(917)343-8683 |

of 24k/305k units by 2028E/31E in our updated base case. Global satellite eric.sheridan@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

operators (e.g., Amazon LEO, Guowang, etc.) are actively updating their satellite Verena Jeng

launch plans, and expanding satellite applications, including in-flight communication +852-2978-1681Goldman Sachs (Asia)| verena.jeng@gs.comL.L.C.

and space data centers, to support commercialization. In this report, we present a Alex Vegliante, CFA

blue sky scenario with an installed base reaching 27k/ 396k units by 2028E/31E, +1(212)934-1878 | alex.vegliante@gs.com

assuming 200k satellite applications made by Chinese vendors (news link) which have Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

seen intensified competition to secure LEO capacity. Read more: Space X Initiation. Julia Fein-Ashley

+1(212)902-5070 | julia.fein-

ashley@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Yifan Hu

+852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com

Andrew Lee

+44(20)7774-1383 |

andrew.j.lee@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

James Schneider, Ph.D.

+1(212)357-2929 |