GEMs FI Strategy Viewpoint: Size and structure of Global Emerging Markets tradable debt

Research evidence excerpt

GEMs FI Strategy Viewpoint: Size and structure of Global Emerging Markets tradable debt

GEM tradable debt stock grew to US$52tn in 2025

Total Global Emerging Market outstanding debt grew by 18% to US$52tn by YE 2025,

increasing by US$8tn, with 18% growth in domestic debt and 19% in external debt.

Following two consecutive years of external debt declines, 2024 showed a small

increase, but in 2025 the growth rate was 18.3%, the largest since 2017 (19.6%), rising

the average annual growth rate of GEM debt stock since 2000 to 13.5%.

China represents 56% of GEM debt, up from 21% in 2007

In 2007 China was just 21% of global GEM debt; now it is 56%, down 1% from 57% in

2024. China has grown to 62% of all GEM domestic debt and is 11% of all GEM external

debt. In 2025 China domestic debt grew by 18% in USD terms, following a 9% increase

in 2024. China government domestic debt increased by 24%, financial institutions by

13% and corporates by 10%.

GEM debt grew to a high 29% of world domestic debt

GEM tradable debt outstanding is 29% of total debt, up from 27% in 2024. Of world

domestic debt, GEM domestic debt outstanding is 30% and of world external debt, GEM

external debt is 21%, as reported by the Bank for International Settlements (Table 1).

Domestic debt is extraordinarily concentrated. China represents 62% of all GEM

domestic debt (Chart 11), the four BRIC countries are 77% and the 10 largest GEM

domestic debt countries (measured by outstanding debt) are 89%. In contrast, external

debt is more broadly distributed. The BRIC countries comprise only 17% and the 10

largest external debt GEM countries comprise 59% (Table 1).

Asia comprises 77% of total GEM tradable debt

Most GEM debt is in Asia at 77% of the overall total (Chart 6). Of domestic debt, Asia

comprises 82%.