China AI Model Handbook #2: enterprise adoption fuels visible cloud upside

Research evidence excerpt

China AI Model Handbook #2: enterprise adoption fuels visible cloud upside

Focus charts

Exhibit 1: We anticipate a series of key events to impact major China AI players

Key sector/company events ahead and potential impacts to major AI players in China

Time Event Potential Impacts

7-Jul-26 Zhipu: 6-month lock up expiry for IPO cornerstone investors - Zhipu: Negative, ~5% shares unlocked

8-Jul-26 MiniMax: 6-month lock up expiry - MiniMax: Negative, ~51% shares unlocked

Jul-26 Zhipu/MiniMax: potential profit alerts - Zhipu/MiniMax: Positive if co announces profit alerts

Jul-26 MiniMax: potential Hailuo model upgrade - BABA/Kuaishou: mild negative, more intense competition on video generation market

- MiniMax/Zhipu: negative, more intense competition

Jul-26 Bytedance: official launch of Seed2.1/Seedance 2.5 - BABA/Tencent/Kuaishou: negative, more intense competition

Jul-26 DeepSeek: potential launch of V4 official - MiniMax/Zhipu: negative, more intense competition

6-Aug-26 MiniMax: expected inclusion in Stock Connect - Zhipu: slight negative on lowering scarcity value for Southbound investors

Aug-26 Zhipu/MiniMax: 1H26 results

Sep-26 Alibaba: potential model upgrade during Alibaba Cloud Summit - Tencent: negative, more intense competition

2H26 Moonshot AI (Kimi): potential launch of K3 - MiniMax/Zhipu: Negative on likely more intense competition

2H26 MiniMax: potential launch of M3 (full version) - Zhipu: Negative on likely more intense competition

- MiniMax/Zhipu: mild negative, more intense competition

2H26 Tencent: potential launching of major model upgrade (HY4.0) - Alibaba: mild negative, more intense competition on cloud segment

2H26 Zhipu: potential launching of major model upgrade (GLM5.5) - MiniMax: Negative on likely more intense competition