Resi Rundown: Less layoffs but new jobs weaker, AVB/EQR provide projections

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Resi Rundown: Less layoffs but new jobs weaker, AVB/EQR provide projections

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Residential REITs

Resi Rundown: Less layoffs but new jobs

weaker, AVB/EQR provide projections

Estimate Change

Nonfarm payrolls disappoint though already seen in rent 06 July 2026

Employment growth is the primary driver of apartment demand and, ultimately, market Equity

rent growth. Last week we noted that June rent trends were muted, which is supported United States

by the June nonfarm payrolls report. Jobs increased by +57K, vs. expectations of +113K. REITs

This was well below the pace seen earlier this spring, even with April revised down by Jana Galan

31K to +148K and May nonfarm payrolls revised down by 43K to +129K. Unemployment Research Analyst

held steady at 4.2% but was driven by a lower participation rate. We remain encouraged BofAS+1 646 855-5042

to see a more normal spring leasing season with market rents showing month over jana.galan@bofa.com

month momentum but note that weaker job growth is contributing to lower y/y growth Jeffrey Spector

Research Analyst

rates as CoStar reported June rent growth of +0.8% y/y compared to +1.2% growth in BofAS

June 2025. We are hosting a CoStar update call on July 15th to dig deeper. +1 646 855 1363

jeff.spector@bofa.com

Unemployment claims & Challenger positive for renewals AndrewResearch BergerAnalyst

Challenger, Gray & Christmas published its June job cuts report, with U.S.-based BofAS

+1 646 855 1589

employers announcing 46K job cuts in June, representing a -53% decline from May’s 97K andrew.berger2@bofa.com

and a -4% decrease from 48K cuts announced in June 2025, marking the lowest monthly Julieta Michelin

total since December 2025. Last week’s Jobless claims again came in lower-than- Research Analyst BofAS