UAE banks: Data Update: Minor estimate changes

Research evidence excerpt

UAE banks: Data Update: Minor estimate changes

Equity Research

7 July 2026 | 7:55PM GST

UAE banks : Data Update: Minor estimate changes

We make minor changes to our quarterly estimates for UAE banks ahead of 2Q26 Kazim Andac

+971(4)214-9958 |

earnings. Our 2Q26E EPS estimates fall by c.5% on average, driven primarily by kazim.andac@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

weaker NIR trends, which we expect to recover in 2H26; our full year estimates for

Ashwath P T, CFA

2026 and beyond are unchanged. +971(4)376-3439 | ashwath.pt@gs.com

FAB: we reduce our other bottom-line estimate for the quarter, driven by lower NIR Gokul Vinayak L

(both fees and other NIR), reflecting weaker economic and tourism activity stemming +1(332)245-7976Goldman Sachs India| gokul.l@gs.comSPL

from the impact of the conflict, impacting FX income, client & trading flow income.

This is partly offset by lower opex and stable NIMs. Our EPS estimate for the quarter

declines by 6% to AED 0.46. We expect some recovery in NIR in 2H26.

Our 12-month price target is unchanged at AED21.0, and we remain Buy-rated (last

close AED17.70). We value the bank using a ROTE/COE methodology on 2027E ROTE

to arrive at our price target. Key downside risks to our view and price target include:

(1) Lower-than-expected NIMs, (2) Regulatory changes impacting revenue and

capital, (3) Worse-than-expected asset quality, and (4) Value-dilutive capital

deployment.

ADCB: we reduce our other bottom-line estimate for the quarter, driven by slightly

lower NIM and higher cost of risk. Our EPS estimate for the quarter declines by 2% to

AED 0.36.

We are Buy-rated on ADCB with an unchanged 12-month price target of AED17.0

(last close AED14.96). We value the bank using a ROTE/COE methodology on 2027E

ROTE to arrive at our price target.