Faberge AB (FABG.ST): Operational performance remains weak, we forecast a 10% decrease in 2027 EPS, 4% below consensus; reiterate Sell

Research evidence excerpt

Faberge AB (FABG.ST): Operational performance remains weak, we forecast a 10% decrease in 2027 EPS, 4% below consensus; reiterate Sell

Goldman Sachs Fabege AB (FABG.ST)

Key risks and what would make us more positive

Below we highlight the key risks we see to our view and investment thesis. If any or all of

these risks were to materialize, we could consider a more positive stance on the shares.

n Better macro conditions than expected: The macro environment has been weak

recently in Sweden, with muted real GDP growth YTD. Should the environment be

better than expected, this could positively impact underlying real estate markets.

n Better real estate markets than expected: The Stockholm office market has been

deteriorating, in our view, with vacancy building up and rents losing growth

momentum. Should the Stockholm office market be stronger than expected, this

could have a more positive impact on some of our operational and ICR assumptions.

n A faster ability to develop and/or sell owned building rights and ramp up the

company’s development pipeline: Fabege has recently delivered a number of

development projects, and its pipeline is now more early stage, with a significant

land bank and development rights in its portfolio. Should Fabege be able to develop

this land bank more quickly than we expect, or successfully seek to sell some of its

development rights at a profit, this could have a positive impact on our development

assumptions.

n Lower interest rates than we currently assume: Fabege’s debt duration is shorter

than some of its peers (although it has recently been increasing) and the fixed

component is lower than for other continental European peers. Should debt

conditions be better than we currently assume, this could have a positive impact on