India Metals & Mining: Q1FY27 preview: EBITDA/t likely to be higher QoQ; but seasonal weakness of Q2 looms large

Research evidence excerpt

India Metals & Mining: Q1FY27 preview: EBITDA/t likely to be higher QoQ; but seasonal weakness of Q2 looms large

Equity Research

7 July 2026 | 10:54PM IST

India Metals & Mining: Q1FY27 preview: EBITDA/t likely to be higher

QoQ; but seasonal weakness of Q2 looms large

Domestic ferrous companies are expected to show an improved performance in Amit Dixit

+91(22)6616-9008 | amit.dixit@gs.com

Q1FY27 compared to Q4FY26. Key points: 1) Realization likely to be higher by INR Goldman Sachs India SPL

4,500/t QoQ on average; 2) Higher coking coal cost and (one-off) adverse cost Kumari Rishika

impact from West Asia crisis likely to constrain EBITDA/t growth to INR 1,500-2,000 +91(22)6616-9154rishika.x.singh@gs.com|

QoQ; 3) Jindal Steel likely to report the highest sales volume growth at 13% YoY; and Goldman Sachs India SPL

4) Shyam Metalics likely to show the best performance on the back of volume growth

of value-added products.

Going ahead, we expect EBITDA/t to trend lower for all the companies in the

seasonally weak Q2. That said, flats prices have not corrected as sharply as longs

hence players with higher proportion of flats products are likely to fare better. For

NMDC, we expect the benefits of higher iron ore price to be offset by lower volumes

going into Q2. We retain BUY on JSW Steel and Shyam Metalics.

Macro highlights for Q1FY27

Per SteelMint data, domestic crude steel production rose 5.6% YoY to 27.9mt in the

Apr-May’26 compared to the same period last year. Steel consumption rose 7.5%

YoY to 24.5mt in the same time. Of total consumption, longs accounted for 56.4% of

overall, down nearly 40bps YoY.

In the Apr-May’26 period, production of flat products rose 9.3% YoY to 10.9mt while

consumption rose 8.4% YoY at 10.7mt, implying a slight over-supply. Market was