BOI likely to cut this week; BCRP, BNM and NBP on hold

Research evidence excerpt

BOI likely to cut this week; BCRP, BNM and NBP on hold

Accessible version

What’s priced in

BOI likely to cut this week; BCRP, BNM and

NBP on hold

In Israel, the central bank meets on July 6. Our economist, Hande Kucuk, forecasts the 05 July 2026

Bank of Israel (BOI) to cut 25bp to 3.50% on July 6, supported by lower oil prices, benign GEM FI Strategy

near-term inflation and the lagged disinflationary impact of earlier shekel appreciation. Global

However, we expect the BOI to signal a more gradual approach to further easing than

markets currently price. Claudio Irigoyen Global Economist

BofAS

In Poland, the central bank meets on July 6. The market is pricing no change for the claudio.irigoyen@bofa.com

meeting. Our economist, Mai Doan, forecastst the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to David Hauner, CFA >>

remain on hold at 3.75% on July 8. Global EM FI/FX Strategist MLI (UK)

david.hauner@bofa.com

In Malaysia, the central bank meets on July 9. The market is pricing no change for the Claudio Piron

meeting. Our economist, Kai Wei Ang, forecasts the Bank Negara Malaysia to remain on Emerging Asia FI/FX Strategist

hold at 2.75% on July 9. Our base case remains for OPR to remain unchanged: (1) BNM Merrillclaudio.piron@bofa.comLynch (Singapore)

may view recent inflation pressures as largely supply-driven, (2) govt's focus on cost-of- Pedro Diaz

living to sharpen, and (3) Fed's hawkish pivot should not materially influence OPR Caribbean Economist

outlook. BofASpdiaz2@bofa.com

In Peru, the central bank meets on July 9. The market is pricing 7bp of cumulative cuts GEMsBofAS FI Strategy & Economics

over the next 12 months. Oue economist, Alexander Múller, forecasts the Central Bank See Team Page for List of Analysts

of Peru (BCRP) to remain on hold at 4.25% for the rest of the year.