Consumer credit scorecard

Research evidence excerpt

Consumer credit scorecard

Accessible version

ABS Alert

Macro backdrop 06 July 2026

In this report, we highlight key data and trends impacting the credit performance of Securitized Products Strategy

consumer debt and consumer-related ABS, including indicators related to employment, United States

consumer indebtedness, spending patterns, and household balance sheets. Employment Chris Flanagan

conditions are the primary driver of consumer credit performance, with consumer debt FI/MBS/CLO Strategist

growth serving as a secondary factor. In recent years, elevated inflation and higher debt- BofAS+1 646 855 6119

service burdens have contributed to weaker credit performance. Links to sector-specific christopher.flanagan@bofa.com

reports covering credit performance across individual consumer related ABS sectors are Theresa O'Neill

available in the sidebar of this page. ABSBofASStrategist

+1 646 855 9285

2H 2026 Outlook for credit performance theresa.oneill@bofa.com

We expect somewhat softer credit performance across most types of consumer debt AlvinABS StrategistFung

and consumer-related ABS, with increasing prospects for stabilization as the year BofAS

+1 646 855-9091

progresses. Our relatively constructive view reflects our economists’ outlook for the alvin.fung@bofa.com

economy and labor market, alongside resilient household balance sheets and, until

recently, prolonged period of tight lending standards. However, persistently high prices

continue to create headwinds for consumers and leave us cautious. At the same time,

recent increases in willingness to lend and mixed signals around credit standards could See Exhibit 39 on page 13 for commonly used acronyms

result in weaker credit metrics later this year or early next year, reflecting the typical lag