THE WORLD CUP AND ECONOMICS: It‘s Still Called Football (07 July)

Research evidence excerpt

THE WORLD CUP AND ECONOMICS: It‘s Still Called Football (07 July)

Economics Research

7 July 2026 | 6:18AM EDT

THE WORLD CUP AND ECONOMICS

It’s Still Called Football (07 July)

In the first head-to-head match-up between European heavyweights, Spain imposed Jan Hatzius

+1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com

again its possession-based style of play but, for most of the game, La Roja was unable Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

to overcome Portugal’s defense. The deadlock was finally broken in the 91st minute. Giovanni Pierdomenico

After taking a quick free-kick, Mikel Merino received a precise pass from Ferran +44(20)7051-6807giovanni.pierdomenico@gs.com|

Torres and slotted it past Diogo Costa to secure a 1–0 victory for Spain. Portugal Goldman Sachs International

Sven Jari Stehnexits the tournament early and, after having taken part in six editions, 41-year-old +44(20)7774-8061 | jari.stehn@gs.com

Cristiano Ronaldo bids farewell to World Cup football. According to our model, Goldman Sachs International

Spain’s chances of winning the trophy have increased to just over 30% following

yesterday’s win, thus closing the gap on France.

After a convincing start to the tournament, Team USA saw their World Cup journey

come to an end in the round of 16. Belgium opened the scoring early in the 9th

minute. Tillman’s equaliser was short-lived as De Ketelaere restored Belgium’s lead

before half-time. In the second half, Vanaken and Lukaku sealed the win with a final

score of 4-1. Belgium will face Spain in the quarter-finals.

Exhibit 1 shows our expectations for today’s games. Exhibit 2 outlines the key

predictions of our model for the knockout stage. See here for more details on our

approach to modelling the knockout stage and how to read the chart.

Exhibit 1: Today’s Games