Weather tracker (June) – Feeling the heat

Research evidence excerpt

Weather tracker (June) – Feeling the heat

Equity Research

7 July 2026

European Retail

Weather tracker (June) – Feeling

the heat

June weather was generally supportive for seasonal sales, European General Retail

although extreme heat has mixed implications. Too hot to NEUTRAL

shop (subdued footfall and boosting online sales) and garden European General Retail

Matthew Clements

- potentially bad for B&M. Operational disruptions to work +44 (0)20 7773 6018

(e.g. tradespeople & delivery riders) and refrigeration matthew.clements@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

equipment Imogen Doyle

+44 (0)20 7773 2605

In collaboration with the Barclays Data Science & Applied AI team, and using the 'Weather Event imogen.doyle@barclays.com

Tracker for Retail' data product (available on Data Hub), we create a historical weather time Barclays, UK

series for a number of retailers (Inditex, H&M, NEXT, M&S, Kingfisher, B&M) based on their

Data Science & Applied AI

individual locations across the US, UK and Continental Europe. Retailer-specific data are in the Vincenzo Pota(iii)

sections below, but here we summarise our observations. For March through June, we assume +44 (0)20 3134 2097

that warmer weather that is drier and sunnier year-on-year, supports spending on spring- vincenzo.pota@barclays.com

summer collections and ranges. Barclays, UK

For more detail, see the Data Science team's Methodology section below.

Our key observations are:

• Looking at year-on-year averages across temperature, rainfall and sunshine, it appears that

conditions were broadly similar to last year, with temperatures above historical averages

(c. 1°C above 5Y averages in the UK and Europe).

• Looking beyond averages, however, June 2026 brought record-breaking heatwaves across