Inflation-Linked Daily ISM decelerates slightly: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

Inflation-Linked Daily ISM decelerates slightly: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

7 July 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

ISM decelerates slightly

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

Jonathan Hill, CFA

+1 212 526 3497

US CPI: ISM services fell to 54, in line with survey; headline was weighed by a decline in new

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

orders, while employment and prices paid were above survey. Real yields rallied on Monday on BCI, US

a carry-adjusted basis: 2y -5.1bp, 5y -4.5bp, 10y -1.8bp, and 30y +0.0bp. Breakevens rose

Apostolos Apostoloumodestly on a carry/RBOB-adjusted basis: 1y -1.4bp, 2y +0.7bp, 5y +2.2bp, 10y +1.1bp, and

+1 212 526 5051

30y +0.9bp. Front-end forward breakevens rose: 1y1y +2.3bp, 2y3y +3.2bp, 5y5y -0.2bp, 10y20y

apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

+0.6bp. The remainder of the week brings FRBNY inflation expectations and the June FOMC BCI, US

meeting minutes.

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: The ECB's Schnabel pointed out that price pressures still exist from the

Iran conflict, noting that "inventories will need to be refilled," while also mentioning that low

Rhine river water levels and the AI investment boom are "supporting global demand and adding

to inflationary pressures" (Bloomberg, July 6, 2026). Real yields rallied: 2y -2bp, 5y -1bp, 10y

+0bp, and 30y +1bp. Breakevens also advanced: 1y +3bp, 2y +2bp, 5y +1bp, 10y +1bp, and

30y +1bp. HICPx rallied modestly: 1y +1bp, 2y +2bp, 5y +1bp, 10y +1bp, and 30y +1bp. In forward

space, 1y1y was 2bp higher and 2y3y was 1bp higher.

UK RPI: Real yields steepened on Monday: 2y +1bp, 5y +1bp, 10y +2bp, and 30y +3bp.

Breakevens sold off modestly: 1y -1bp, 2y -1bp, 5y -1bp, 10y -1bp, and 30y -1bp. RPIs also fell: 1y