Consumer Pulse Survey: A Tale of Two Marketplaces

Research evidence excerpt

Consumer Pulse Survey: A Tale of Two Marketplaces

Idea

July 7, 2026 08:05 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMEBAY & ETSY | North America Nathan Feather

Equity Analyst

Consumer Pulse Survey: A Tale Nathan.Feather@morganstanley.comBrian Nowak, CFA +1 212 761-9812

Brian.Nowak@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3365

of Two Marketplaces

Internet

North America

Our latest Consumer Pulse survey shows EBAY and ETSY trends Industry View Attractive

diverging. ETSY net purchase intent was -10% in June,

rebounding from -18% in April, but still worse than we'd expect

given the alt data. On the other hand, EBAY momentum is

persisting into the back half, implying GMV upside.MOur Latest AlphaWise Consumer Pulse survey results show divergent trends for

EBAY & ETSY: We've conducted regular surveys on the consumer & eCommerce

over the past few years, with our latest survey running from June 18th to 22nd.

These surveys are not perfect, but have shown a strong level of directional

accuracy & were an early sign of the 2H25 inflections for EBAY & ETSY. EBAY

continues to screen well in the latest survey with N3M purchase intent roughly flat

at -1% (an ~8pt improvement Y/Y & its best reading since 9/25). On the other hand,

ETSY's net purchase intent was weak at -10% in May & June, rebounding from its

low of -18% in April, but remains among the lowest of surveyed retailers. This

contrasts with strong alternative data over the course of 2Q, which gives concern

that the demand may prove more temporary than the market expects. See the full

survey here

ETSY; Weak consumer purchase intent juxtaposes strong alternative data: In our

previous survey, ETSY's N3M purchase intent fell to -18% in April, a sharp drop-off

from +2% in February. Although bouncing off lows, N3M purchase intent has