Factory Automation: Compelling Long-term Growth: Overweight on Keyence, Equal-weight on Fanuc, SMC

Research evidence excerpt

Factory Automation: Compelling Long-term Growth: Overweight on Keyence, Equal-weight on Fanuc, SMC

FoundationM

Factory Automation (Japan) - Industry View: Attractive

Chip making equipment is poised as a near-term driver for the industry, while the automotive field offers upside

further out. Physical AI is becoming a more compelling long-term growth theme for the factory automation (FA)

industry, with wafer fabrication equipment the clearest near-term driver. As fabs push toward more advanced nodes

and larger memory supply, we see increasing demand for automation tools used in high-tech equipment. With our

forecasts calling for WFE growth of 31% YoY in 2026 and 28% YoY in 2027, we see a visible earnings tailwind for

the industry. Autos remain a slower moving opportunity but could gradually regain momentum as model

development cycles shorten and see further progress in electrification/software-defined vehicles.

FA Majors: Order of Preference

FactSet Order of Mkt. Cap. P Margin OP Margin % P/E P/B EV/EBITDA* Div. Yield ROE Morgan Stanley

Company

Ticker Preference ($mn) F25 F26e F27e F28e F25 F26e F27e F28e F25 F26e F27e F28e F25 F26e F27e F28e F26e F26e Rating Coverage Analyst

6861-JP Keyence 1 121,419 52.0% 52.4% 52.7% 32.2 37.1 33.5 30.2 4.1 5.1 4.8 4.5 20.9 24.4 21.7 19.3 0.7% 14.0% OW Kitaura, Takeshi

6506-JP Yaskawa Electric 2 11,496 11.6% 12.5% 12.0% 40.6 35.4 31.4 32.6 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.1 21.8 19.7 17.7 17.6 1.0% 10.2% OW Jiang, Lisa

6407-JP CKD 3 3,163 14.8% 15.4% 13.8% 22.0 25.4 22.5 27.0 1.9 3.0 2.7 2.6 10.4 13.5 12.3 13.8 1.5% 12.2% EW Jiang, Lisa

6273-JP SMC 4 28,824 23.1% 22.8% 22.6% 22.7 23.5 21.5 19.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.9 16.1 15.7 14.0 12.7 1.4% 10.2% EW Kitaura, Takeshi