ASEAN Consumer: Quality wins amid structurally weak consumer cycle

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN Consumer: Quality wins amid structurally weak consumer cycle

ASEAN Consumer

07 July 2026 Citi Research

How much has the sector declined and

recovered?

Historical behavior post-oil spike and in rising rate environment. The current de-

rating of ASEAN consumer stocks follows a historical pattern across global

consumer sectors post the spike in oil price and subsequent increase in interest

rates, which undergoes a two-stage earnings revision cycle: [1] In the first 1-2

quarters following the shock, consensus estimates are usually revised up as

revenue growth from nominal price inflation supports the top line; [2] in the

following 3-6 quarters, estimates are revised down sharply as gross margin

compression from input cost lags materialize in reported earnings.

We are currently in the second stage, and we have seen consumer sector revenue

and earnings revisions by consensus in the range of 100-700bps. As we are

approaching Q2 results, the quarter within which the cost spike occurred, we

should be cautious about potential consensus EPS revisions for the rest of the year.

n Indonesia Consumer – Consensus revenue has been revised up by 100bps

aggregately in ID Consumer since Feb-26, driven by ~200bps Rev upgrades in

MAPI and CMRY, likely reflecting FX pass throughs. Meanwhile, consensus EPS

has been revised down 200-400bps aggregately since Feb-26, and only MAPI

saw EPS upgrades, counter-intuitively despite the FX pressures. In our view,

there are still consensus EPS downgrades to be expected following Q2 results in

Jul-26.

Figure 1. ID Revenue revisions Figure 2. ID NPAT revisions

ID Consumer - Consensus Revenue Revisions ID Consumer - Consensus EPS Revisions

2,100

415 2,050

2,000

410 1,950

1,900

405 1,850

1,800

400 1,750

1,700

1,650

390 1,600