Good Value or Value Trap?

Research evidence excerpt

Good Value or Value Trap?

Idea

June 18, 2026 12:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MASEAN Consumer | Asia Pacific Divya Gangahar Kothiyal

Equity Analyst

Good Value or Value Trap? Divya.Gangahar@morganstanley.comEileen Lin +65 6834-6438

Research Associate

Eileen.Lin@morganstanley.com +65 6834-5060

Indonesian consumer P/Es have de-rated a further ~25% YTD

while the Philippines and Thailand have remained relatively

stable. We update our Indonesian consumer scenario values to

reflect higher cost of capital. Key OWs: ASII and CPALL.

ASEAN Consumer

Key Takeaways Asia Pacific

Industry View Attractive

Indonesia: Equity risk premium has risen substantially but could rise further.

What’s Changed

Policy uncertainty remains elevated while financial conditions have tightened.

Jollibee Foods Corp (JFC.PS) From To

Inflation has risen across the region. The Philippines has faced the largest impact Price Target PP300.00 PP188.00

so far. Consumer sentiment is likely to be softer in 2Q vs 1Q. Kalbe Farma Tbk PT (KLBF.JK) From To

Price Target Rp1,490 Rp860

For consumer stocks, valuation has been low for a while. Indonesia has de-rated

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur

further this year but we think ASII looks compelling as a self-help story. Tbk PT (ICBP.JK) From To

Price Target Rp9,810 Rp8,110

In Thailand, tourist arrivals recovered to +3.5% in May; tourism revenue is up

12.8% y/y. Co-payment stimulus was launched on June 1. Preferred pick: CPALL. Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT

(UNVR.JK) From To

No changes to our ratings but we adjust our bear case values in Indonesia to Price Target Rp2,500 Rp2,150

reflect higher cost of equity. We also lower our earnings estimates for JFC. Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT

(MAPI.JK) From To

Price Target Rp1,800 Rp1,760