Management Tone Remains Constructive for 2H

Research evidence excerpt

Management Tone Remains Constructive for 2H

Update

July 31, 2026 11:44 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MAstra International Tbk PT | Asia Pacific Divya Gangahar Kothiyal

Equity Analyst

Management Tone Remains Divya.Gangahar@morganstanley.comEileen Lin +65 6834-6438

Research Associate

Eileen.Lin@morganstanley.com +65 6834-5060

Constructive for 2H Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Tim Hsiao

Key Takeaways Tim.Hsiao@morganstanley.com +852 2848-1982

Management remains confident Indonesia 4W sales can reach ~850k units, in line Peggy Wang

with previous guidance, with Astra sustaining ~50% market share. Peggy.Pc.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3934

Commercial vehicles should remain a growth driver, supported by government

programs and logistics demand, while Toyota’s export push gives additional

support.

Auto manufacturing margins are likely to soften in 2H as FX effects catch up;

pricing actions will be gradual given competitive intensity. Astra International Tbk PT (ASII.JK, ASII IJ)

Auto distribution/retail margins should remain more resilient, supported by mix, ASEAN Consumer | Indonesia

Stock Rating Overweight

disciplined discounting and after-sales income.

Industry View Attractive

Price target Rp6,800

Auto-finance NPFs remain contained at <1% for 4W and <2% for 2W even though

Up/downside to price target (%) 33

Indonesia multifinance industry gross NPF rose to 3.1% in May-26 (+50bp y/y). Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026) Rp5,100

52-Week Range Rp7,475-4,350

Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 40,484

ASII reiterated 2W industry volume target of 6.4-6.7mn in 2026 implying 0-4.5% y/ Mkt cap, curr (bn) Rp206,466

EV, curr (bn) Rp235,384

y growth (1H +1%). It aims to keep market share at ~77-78% in 2H.

Avg daily trading value (bn) Rp300