Emerging Markets Credit Monitor

Research evidence excerpt

Emerging Markets Credit Monitor

FICC Research

Credit Strategy

7 July 2026

EM Credit Strategy

We summarise performance and valuations and highlight

trade opportunities and dislocations across sovereign, quasi-

sovereign and corporate bonds in Asia, Emerging Europe, the Fabian Herold +44 (0)20 7773 0753

Middle East, Africa and Latin America. fabian.herold@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Andreas Kolbe

+44 (0) 20 3134 3134

andreas.kolbe@barclays.com

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• Switch into ADGB 2050 from QATAR 2050: We recommend switching from QATAR 2050s into

ADGB 2050s to pick-up c.20bp in spread and take out c.9 points in cash. We see the long-term

fair value spread between the two bonds as broadly flat, given the similar rating, country

characteristics and investor base (following the exclusion of UAE bonds from the EMBI).

Indeed, as the staggered exclusion of ADGB and other UAE bonds from the EMBI concluded at

the end of June, we think one important technical headwind for UAE risk has now been

removed. This should allow the relative underperformance of ADGB to Qatar since December

2025 to reverse, similar to the experience post-exclusion of Qatar in 2025 (see UAE

credit: EMBI exclusion risks not fully priced, 19 January, for a more detailed discussion of the

technicals surrounding EMBI index exclusion for GCC sovereigns). Potential further issuance

from the UAE complex could be a headwind for ADGB spreads, but this is likely not a unique

risk to UAE bonds, but a broader trend across most of the GCC following the US-Iran war and

the additional financing needs the conflict has caused. We recommend expressing the ADGB