Inflation-Linked Daily: Softer EU cost inflation and UK inflation expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Inflation-Linked Daily: Softer EU cost inflation and UK inflation expectations

Barclays | Inflation-Linked Daily

US forward 1y rates

FIGURE 27. TIPS Implied 1y Tenor Cash Forward Breakevens

2.80% Data as of: Jul 02 26

2.60%

2.40%

2.20%

2.00%

1.80%

1.60% 3m ago 1m ago

1.40%

1.20% 1w ago Latest

1.00%

26 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 33 33 34 34 35

TII0.125Oct TII0.375Jan TII0.125Apr TII0.375Jul TII1.625Oct TII0.500Jan TII1.250Apr TII0.750Jul TII2.375Oct TII0.875Jan TII2.125Apr TII0.250Jul TII1.625Oct TII0.125Jan TII1.625Apr TII0.125Jul TII0.125Jan TII1.250Apr TII0.125Jul TII0.125Jan TII0.625Jul TII1.125Jan TII1.375Jul TII1.750Jan TII1.875Jul TII2.125Jan

Source: Barclays Research

FIGURE 28. TIPS Implied 1y Tenor Cash Forward Breakevens

1st Bond 2nd Bond Jul 02 26 1w Ago 1m Ago 3m Ago

TII0.125Oct 26 TII1.625Oct 27 2.23% 2.21% 2.40% 2.11%

TII0.375Jan 27 TII0.500Jan 28 2.39% 2.32% 2.53% 2.33%

TII0.125Apr 27 TII1.250Apr 28 2.43% 2.36% 2.64% 2.45%

TII0.375Jul 27 TII0.750Jul 28 2.44% 2.41% 2.60% 2.32%

TII1.625Oct 27 TII2.375Oct 28 2.43% 2.38% 2.59% 2.32%

TII0.500Jan 28 TII0.875Jan 29 2.50% 2.49% 2.64% 2.37%

TII1.250Apr 28 TII2.125Apr 29 2.42% 2.39% 2.50% 2.31%

TII0.750Jul 28 TII0.250Jul 29 2.36% 2.33% 2.45% 2.31%

TII2.375Oct 28 TII1.625Oct 29 2.45% 2.41% 2.48% 2.36%

TII0.875Jan 29 TII0.125Jan 30 2.40% 2.35% 2.45% 2.40%

TII2.125Apr 29 TII1.625Apr 30 2.42% 2.38% 2.44% 2.40%

TII0.250Jul 29 TII0.125Jul 30 2.51% 2.43% 2.52% 2.46%

TII1.625Oct 29 TII1.125Oct 30 2.48% 2.39% 2.43% 2.33%

TII0.125Jan 30 TII0.125Jan 31 2.41% 2.33% 2.41% 2.26%

TII1.625Apr 30 TII1.250Apr 31 2.46% 2.37% 2.40% #N/A

TII0.125Jul 30 TII0.125Jul 31 2.44% 2.40% 2.43% 2.37%

TII0.125Jan 31 TII0.125Jan 32 2.46% 2.44% 2.43% 2.46%

TII1.250Apr 31 TII3.375Apr 32 2.58% 2.52% 2.67% #N/A