Top Themes, Trade Ideas, and 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Top Themes, Trade Ideas, and 2Q26 Earnings Preview

FICC Research

Credit Research

6 July 2026

Independent E&P

Top Themes, Trade Ideas, and

2Q26 Earnings Preview

Our estimates imply quarterly EBITDA across our coverage Harry Mateer

that generally trends below the current consensus. With oil's +1 212 412 7903

harry.mateer@barclays.com

sharp rally in 2Q26 so far proving to be a blip, the industry's BCI, US

decision to remain disciplined seems prescient. We cover El Irene Zhang

Niño, capital discipline, and E&P returns beta to oil. +1 212 526 6051 yiran.zhang@barclays.com

BCI, US

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In 2Q26, the investment grade E&P sector outperformed the broader credit market and

industrials, and delivered the strongest excess returns across energy subsectors. Within the E&P

category, the highest excess returns were generated by APA, OXY and DVN, while the lowest

returns were from EXE, EOG and AR. For 2Q26, the majority of our EBITDA(X) estimates are

trending lower than the Street consensus, which we think reflects the rapid decline in

commodity prices toward the end of the quarter, which may not yet be reflected in consensus

estimates.

El Niño (and Winter Temperatures) Rising

In Turning Up the Temp, Turning Down the Gas (June 17, 2026), we analyzed historical El Niño

periods for heating degree day (HDD) sensitivity in order to understand the potential effect on

natural gas demand from the residential market. On our numbers, we see potential for a 0.6 tcf

decline in annual natural gas consumption, which is meaningful relative to a US gas storage

market that has been fairly steady at 4.0 tcf.