UPM-Kymmene (UPM.HE): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

UPM-Kymmene (UPM.HE): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q26

Equity Research

6 July 2026 | 9:16PM BST

We update our estimates for UPM-Kymmene ahead of its 2Q26 results (July 23), as Gabriel Simoes

+44(20)7051-6922 |

well as to reflect the latest FX trends and marking to market commodity prices. gabriel.simoes@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

Our 2Q26 EBITDA is 3% below Visible Alpha Consensus Data. We revise our 2Q26 Georgina Fraser, Ph.D.

+44(20)7552-5984 |

EBITDA down 5% vs. our previous estimate. The negative revision comes mostly from georgina.fraser@gs.com

lower realized prices in the pulp division at the end of the quarter, and lower results

Thomas Wardin the Energy and Communication Paper business - due to lower energy prices and a +44(20)7051-2527 |

smaller-than-anticipated effect from lower energy costs/higher prices flowing thomas.ward@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

through the company’s P&L this quarter. The difference to consensus comes mostly Marcus von Scheele

from our lower Fibres and Energy EBITDA, somewhat offset by our higher +44(20)7774-7676marcus.vonscheele@gs.com|

Communication Paper EBITDA. Goldman Sachs International

Our revised EBITDA estimates are now -6%/-11%/-5% vs. Visible Alpha

Consensus Data in 2026/27/28. Our lower than consensus estimates are led by the

Fibres division, where we are -14%/-20%/-11% vs. consensus Adj. EBITDA for

2026/27/28, as we expect the weakness in the Chinese pulp market to spread across

other markets in the coming months and last for a long time. We are also significantly

below vs. consensus on the Communication Paper business for 2027/28, as we

anticipate decreasing margins for the business, as demand moves lower. We also

slightly increase our estimate for capex, as we now account for slightly higher