2Q26 Preview

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview

ley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 2

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $95.00 BASE CASE $81.00 BEAR CASE $45.00

~9x 2026e EBITDA ~8x 2026e EBITDA ~10x EBITDA

Iran conflict escalated/extended such that Nitrogen markets normalizing to an Russian/Ukraine conflicts settled such that

nitrogen markets have a steeper cost curve attractive mean post the Iran conflict Russian natural gas is expected to return in

with greater risk premiums required, disruption. Nutrien's North America based earnest to Europe. That combined with

providing higher prices and Nitrogen gas costs are unchanged. A "tighter for greater US LNG exports lead global natgas

segment performance. Multiple expands to longer" potash outlook provides scope for prices back to $HSD/mmbtu, flattening the

reflect greater durability of cost curve delta positive potash valuation multiple mean cost curve. Likewise, Russian ammonia

and Nutrien's position at the low end of it. reversion as consensus concerns on both exports flow again (through a pipeline that

BHP announces further delays to its Jansen supply and demand are likely too bearish. crosses Ukraine). Strong corn/soy

potash mine's commercial production Retail expectations are bearish with production leads to <$4 corn. Reversion to

schedule and cancels Phase 2, which derisks revisions risks limited to this year, in our 2020 levels of profitability in both K&N.

the S&D into the next decade.