Canada Economics Comment: Q2 BoC Surveys: Softer Activity, Firmer Inflation

Research evidence excerpt

Canada Economics Comment: Q2 BoC Surveys: Softer Activity, Firmer Inflation

Economics Research

6 July 2026 | 8:11PM BST

Canada Economics Comment: Q2 BoC Surveys: Softer Activity, Firmer

Inflation

BOTTOM LINE: The 2026 Q2 Business Outlook Survey (BOS) headline indicator Megan Peters

+44(20)7051-2058 |

moved sideways at a subdued -0.4. The newly introduced summary activity indicator megan.l.peters@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

ticked down from 0.13 to -0.11 while the summary price indicator ticked up from

Joseph Briggs

-0.05 to 0.96. Business sentiment, as measured by the three-month moving average +1(212)902-2163 |

of the balance of opinion on current business conditions, deteriorated from 22% in joseph.briggs@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Q1 to 14% in Q2, while the balance of opinion on future sales ticked down from 25%

in Q1 to 8% in Q2. The survey continues to point to excess supply, but also noted an

increase in the share of firms reporting supply chain disruptions. This quarter’s

report also included consultations with industry leaders and experts from the oil and

gas sector, who reported an improved outlook for investment and production. On

the inflation side, the balance of opinion on input prices and selling prices both

climbed above their historical averages, reflecting an increase in non-labor costs due

to the conflict in the Middle East, while wage growth expectations were little

changed. The Q2 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) also pointed to

a subdued activity outlook but somewhat firmer inflation. The write-up of the

consumer survey led with inflation expectations, which have worsened since the last

survey, a hawkish change from previous reports which started with the subdued

headline CSCE index.