Machinery Lead Indicators: June data points in 40 exhibits

Research evidence excerpt

Machinery Lead Indicators: June data points in 40 exhibits

6 July 2026

U.S. Machinery

This note provides a holistic view of relevant data points for the Machinery sector across Chad Dillard

+1 917 344 8469 construction equipment, commercial vehicles and agriculture equipment, with a brief

chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com overview of key macroeconomic indicators.

Miguel Marques, CFA The Construction Equipment market: Non-resi starts increased in May by ~30% Y/Y in

+1 917 344 8432 terms of value (similar to the the prior month), and but declined ~10% Y/Y in sq ft, vs prior miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com

month’s -~10%. Total Non Resi spending declined 2%, vs +1% Y/Y the prior month. May

Specialist Sales Construction Backlog increased ~8% Y/Y, vs+1% the prior month. The Architecture Billings

Index declined by 4%Y/Y in May (vs prior month’s +3%), and still remains below the 50

Steve Song mark. In Apr, Komatsu retail sales grew in North America, Europe and China by 10%, 10%,

+1 917 344 8401

steve.song@bernsteinsg.com and 34%, respectively. May Dodge Momentum Index accelerated to +31% Y/Y from the

prior month’s +30%.

North America Heavy Duty Truck remains under pressure, but is showing some

positive signs. Build rates declined ~10% Y/Y during May, vs ~-10% the prior month. Net

orders increased 100% Y/Y reaching ~25k units (vs ~25k prior month). Backlog increased

~70% (vs ~+50% the prior month). In June, the Internet Truckstop Market Demand Index

increased ~100% YoY (vs. ~+150% prior month). In the earliest read of Jul, DAT Spot Rates

reached $3.07, which translates to+45% Y/Y, similar to the prior month

In Ag equipment, farmer sentiment deteriorated in both US and European markets. Hence,

sentiment remained cautious and unit volumes continued under pressure. The Purdue AG