Base Metals Comment: Aluminium: Lowering Our 2027 Price Forecast to $2,700/t on a Faster Mideast Supply Recovery

Research evidence excerpt

Base Metals Comment: Aluminium: Lowering Our 2027 Price Forecast to $2,700/t on a Faster Mideast Supply Recovery

Commodities Research

6 July 2026 | 7:48AM BST

Base Metals Comment: Aluminium: Lowering Our 2027 Price Forecast to

$2,700/t on a Faster Mideast Supply Recovery

n Following news that restoration at the Al Taweelah aluminium smelter is running Lavinia Forcellese

+44(20)7774-9243 |

ahead of schedule, with hot metal production resumed and around 7% of cells lavinia.forcellese@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

back online, we pull forward our recovery assumption, with full production

Aurelia Waltham

restored by end-Q1 2027 versus end-2027 previously. To be clear, EGA +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com

maintained that returning to pre-incident levels could take up to a year, and only Goldman Sachs International

around 20% of cells have had frozen metal removed – a necessary step before Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 |

restart after metal solidified inside the cells when power was lost. However, the daan.struyven@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

company is working to accelerate the timeline and market feedback points to Samantha Dart

scope for a faster ramp. +1(212)357-9428samantha.dart@gs.com|

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n Beyond Al Taweelah, the latest industry feedback also points toward a faster

Middle East supply recovery more broadly. Together, the faster Al Taweelah ramp

and broader regional recovery add 620kt to our 2026 supply forecast and 920kt

to 2027 versus our prior base case, reducing our 2026 deficit to 100kt, from

720kt, and lifting the 2027 surplus to around 1.5Mt, from 590kt (Exhibit 1).

Accordingly, we lower our Q4 2026 LME aluminium forecast to $2,950/t, from

$3,200/t, and our 2027 average forecast to $2,700/t, from $2,950/t, below