The Obesity Evolution: Medicare Volume Unlock — KOL Survey to Anticipate Early Impact

Research evidence excerpt

The Obesity Evolution: Medicare Volume Unlock — KOL Survey to Anticipate Early Impact

Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare: Pharmaceuticals

be the most significant logistical bottleneck, followed by a long tail of other factors

including centralized processing and appropriate patient selection.

n Duration. Physicians reported an average observed treatment duration (for the

eligible patient population previously on GLP-1s via non-Medicare channels) of ~12

months. Given our prior survey suggests access/cost is the leading reason for

discontinuation, we believe the $50 out-of-pocket for patients could potentially

increase patient adherence and become a tailwind for revenue.

Implications

We see the overall survey results as generally consistent with our Global Anti-Obesity

Medication market model, where we estimate ~$2.6bn in revenue from the Medicare

channel for 2026, increasing to ~$8bn in 2027, with higher efficacy injectables

commanding the majority of share, although we expect investors to closely monitor

prescription trends (e.g. pick-up in overall prescription volume or Zepbound Kwikpen

that is specific to DTC and government channels) over the coming months. Collectively,

considering both price and volume changes, we illustratively calculate incremental

revenue of $2bn+ for 2H’26 and $6bn+ for 2027 (assuming 15m Bridge patients, and

volume weighted average DTC monthly pricing of $400 Zepbound, $349 Wegovy pen,

and $175 for Wegovy Pill and $189 for Foundayo using recent prescription data).

We see positive readthrough from the survey to LLY, where Zepbound is expected to

maintain leading share, and Novo where the food-effect/fasting for Wegovy pill is not

viewed to be a barrier. On an overall volume basis, we view the results to be positive for