India: 100 indicators of growth: The big question for 2H

Research evidence excerpt

India: 100 indicators of growth: The big question for 2H

6 July 2026

India: 100 indicators of growth EconomicsIndia

The big question for 2H

◆ Manufacturing makes up c20% of GDP and has been Aayushi Chaudhary

remarkably resilient, led by exports and inventory build-up Economist, India, Indonesia & Sri Lanka HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

Limited

◆ Agriculture makes up another c20% and could be weighed aayushi.chaudhary@hsbc.co.in

+91 22 2268 5543

down by El Niño

Pranjul Bhandari

Chief India Economist/Strategist, ASEAN Economist

◆ As we pivot from strong manufacturing to weak agriculture, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

Limited, Singapore Branch

can services rise to the occasion? Some bright spots have pranjul.bhandari@hsbc.com.sg

definitely emerged … +65 6658 4976

Priya Mehrishi

Associate Economist

Our database of 100 indicators of growth suggests a weakening of momentum in HSBCLimitedSecurities and Capital Markets (India) Private

April-May. Even so, manufacturing has helped curb the fall. In this report, we present priya.mehrishi@hsbc.co.in

+91 97391 69567

20 key charts to illustrate how different parts of the economy are faring, and what that

implies for 2H26.

Manufacturing, which makes up c20% of GDP, has been notably resilient despite

the spike in energy and industrial input costs in March-May. This is because energy-

market uncertainty prompted precautionary inventory build-up – a trend most visible

in consumer goods. At the same time, lower US tariffs created a window to

accelerate non-oil exports ahead of potential Section 301 tariffs.

Agriculture, which makes up another c20% of GDP, could hurt in the months ahead,

faced with the likelihood of a ‘very strong El Niño’. Temperatures are trending above