Poland rates: Summer steepeners

Research evidence excerpt

Poland rates: Summer steepeners

6 July 2026

Poland rates FixedRates Income

Summer steepeners Poland

◆ We see risk that NBP rhetoric will shift to a more dovish stance Robert Preston

in the near term and the market could start pricing in rate cuts Rates Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

robert.preston@hsbc.com

◆ However, it is not clear that the economy needs further easing, +44 20 7991 0955

and we think fiscal risks are underappreciated by markets

◆ We expect the Polish curve to steepen further in both bonds

and swaps, and we open two new trade ideas

Table 1. Poland trade ideas

Trade Entry (date) Target Stop 3m C+R Rationale Risk

Buy Poland POLGB 5.00 01/30 91bp 121bp 76bp +2bp Dovish NBP shift Fundamentals

Sell Poland POLGB 5.25 04/36 (06-Jul-26) and inflation prevent NBP

premium pick-up, shift, DM beta,

building fiscal risks fiscal

Rec PLN 2Y IRS 43bp 73bp 28bp -5bp ahead of election, consolidation,

Pay PLN 10Y IRS (06-Jul-26) seasonality foreign inflows

Source: Bloomberg, HSBC. Target and stop levels are indicative only. Trade ideas remain open until explicitly closed in a publication.

It is not obvious to us that Poland’s macro fundamentals support further rate cuts by

the NBP or that monetary policy is restrictive. Growth remains solid, underpinned by

significant EU fund inflows, lower oil prices will likely reduce the drag on real

incomes, and the labour market continues to look relatively resilient. Additionally, the

NBP have already delivered 200bp of rate cuts since May 2025, the effects of which

are still feeding through, especially with private-sector credit growth turning a corner.

Furthermore, there are additional upside risks to the inflation trajectory. Upcoming

elections might encourage the current government to embark on further fiscal