Turkish Aviation: Disruption creates winners

Research evidence excerpt

Turkish Aviation: Disruption creates winners

6 July 2026

Turkish Aviation EquitiesAviation

Disruption creates winners Türkiye

◆ Middle East disruption reinforces Istanbul’s strategic role; Cenk Orcan*

Turkish Airlines emerges as a relative beneficiary Aviation & Industrials Analyst HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler A.S.

cenkorcan@hsbc.com.tr

◆ Fuel price trends suggest a profit recovery from 3Q26 +90 212 376 46 14

David John*

◆ Retain Buy ratings; cut TPs for PGS & TAV, raise for TK Associate

Bangalore

The disruption has reshuffled competitive positioning rather than changed the

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

long-term story. The Middle East conflict has created a challenging operating not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

backdrop but its impact has been far from uniform. While the sector partially

absorbed higher costs through hedging, fare increases, capacity optimisation, and

network reallocations, the most important outcome has been the redistribution of

regional traffic flows. Istanbul strengthened its position as the natural alternative to

the Gulf mega-hubs, reinforcing Turkish Airlines’ competitive advantage in global

connectivity and network breadth. Meanwhile, domestic demand remained resilient,

partly cushioning the impact of softer inbound tourism.

2Q26 should mark the earnings trough. Jet fuel prices have retreated materially

from their 2Q26 peak while airlines continue to benefit from pricing actions

implemented during the disruption. Combined with resilient demand and existing

hedge positions, we expect margin pressures to begin easing from 3Q26, setting the

stage for a more meaningful earnings recovery throughout 2027.

The structural investment case remains intact. The recent disruption has not