US Airlines: 2QFV26 preview: demand bears high fares

Research evidence excerpt

US Airlines: 2QFV26 preview: demand bears high fares

6 July 2026

US Airlines EquitiesAirlines

2QFY26 preview: demand bears high fares United States

◆ 2Q26 demand has been strong: we forecast mid to high teens Achal Kumar*

YoY rise in fares; corporate and premium demand resilient Analyst, Global Transport

HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

Limited

◆ Jet fuel price has fallen c50% from recent peak, but we achalkumar@hsbc.co.in

expect the benefit to be more meaningful from 3Qe +91 80 4555 2751

Harshit Mantri*, CFA

◆ Update forecasts for fuel and yield; ratings unchanged but Analyst,HSBC SecuritiesTransportand&CapitalLogistics,MarketsHospitality(India) Private

TPs raised, guidance upgrades could be near-term catalyst Limitedharshit.mantri@hsbc.co.in

+91 80 4550 3780

Demand strong even as fares step up: Most US airlines confirmed that despite mid-to-

high teens fare rises, demand has been strong across segments incl premium, corporates * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

(finance and banking, defence, education and transport) and even main cabin. Apr-May not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

industry data show corporate ticket sales up 15% YoY (part of 2Q sales booked at slightly

lower yields). Hence, we don’t see the full benefit of higher fares falling in 2Q.

Fuel eased significantly; benefit spills to 3Q: Jet fuel is down >50% from the recent

peak but the benefit should mostly flow through from 3Qe due to the time lag (all airlines

lock fuel prices 15 days in advance), with some benefit in 2Q. We model 2Q fuel price

slightly lower than guided (2Q guidance ranged USD4-4.25/gallon, although Delta could

enjoy slightly higher benefits (compared to peers) because it has its own refinery.