US Insurance: Mid-year check-in: The search for value

Research evidence excerpt

US Insurance: Mid-year check-in: The search for value

6 July 2026

US Insurance EquitiesInsurance

Mid-year check-in: The search for value United States

◆ P&C insurance has benefited from the sector rotation underway Vikram Gandhi*, CFA

in the US markets SeniorHSBC SecuritiesAnalyst, USandFinancialsCapital Markets (India) Private

Limited

◆ This has substantially closed the valuation gap for the names vikram.gandhi@hsbc.co.in

we cover, leaving us searching for value +91 80 45552430

Dmitriy Leskin

◆ We downgrade our ratings on ALL and CB to Hold from Buy; Analyst, US Financials HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

retain Buy on AIG and Hold on PGR and TRV; adjust TPs dmitriy.leskin@us.hsbc.com

+1 212 525 4110

Personal lines: Rate filings data for personal lines suggests that while auto pricing

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

turned negative this year, there hasn’t been any material deterioration since end-1Q26. not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Rating environment appears to have remained resilient for homeowners with pricing

likely staying positive in 2Q26. Overall, the personal lines rates at the 1H stage appear to

have held up somewhat better than our expectation at the beginning of the year.

Commercial lines: We think the negative pricing trend for commercial property likely

continued, and perhaps even accelerated, in 2Q26. Casualty rates likely stayed firmly

positive in 2Q26, closely following the loss cost trendline, even as more states advance

tort reforms. And for some FinPro lines like D&O, we expect underwriters to have tried

hard to make it to the flat line following a prolonged period of softness. Overall, we would

characterize commercial lines rating environment to be slightly weaker vs our