2026 H2 Outlook: Balancing a Two-Speed Economy

Research evidence excerpt

2026 H2 Outlook: Balancing a Two-Speed Economy

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia Economics Date

China 30 June 2026

China Macro

2026 H2 Outlook: Balancing a Two-

Speed Economy

Yi Xiong, Ph.D.

n After a strong start in Q1, a deepening K-shaped divergence has led to a

Chief Economist

growth slowdown in Q2. Strong exports have been offset by weaker

+852-2203 6139

domestic demand, with consumption softening due to the diminishing

impact of subsidies, weaker consumer confidence, and the pass-through of Deyun Ou

higher prices. Fiscal impulse also weakened significantly in the second Economist

quarter, with overall spending growth turning negative in March and April. +852-2203 6166

n Looking into H2, we think strong external demand will continue to drive

growth... Exports are forecast to grow 14% for the full year, supported by

the "AHEAD" factors: Agentic AI, heavy assets, energy cost advantages,

accelerating green transition, and diversification.

n …while increased fiscal spending and property market positive signals

Figure 1: China economic forecasts

will help stabilize domestic demand. A rebound in fiscal spending is likely

in H2 as policymakers respond to the Q2 slowdown, with projects under the

15th Five-Year Plan expected to ramp up. Concurrently, the property market

is showing early signs of stabilization in top-tier cities, with rising secondary

home sales and declining inventories, though a broad-based recovery is not

yet evident.

n Reflation is expected to continue, though the pace of price hikes will likely

become less steep in H2. While imported inflation from oil has likely run its

course, PPI is still expected to continue its reflation trend, driven by strong Source : Deutsche Bank Research

AI demand and price pass-throughs from upstream to downstream. CPI