Our CRB supply/demand model suggests additional rationalization may be needed

Research evidence excerpt

Our CRB supply/demand model suggests additional rationalization may be needed

6 July 2026

Packaging Unpacked

Key findings from our CRB Supply/Demand model

Industry rationalization has improved market conditions: The industry has taken

meaningful steps toward rebalancing supply through a series of announced mill

closures. During 2025, several producers announced permanent capacity

reductions, including Graphic Packaging’s closures of its Middletown and East

Angus facilities, Smurfit Westrock’s closure of its St. Paul mill, and Greif’s closure

of its Los Angeles facility. These actions have improved market fundamentals but

have been partially offset by the continued ramp-up of Graphic Packaging’s new

550,000 ton-per-year Waco facility, which began commercial production in late

2025 and remains the largest source of incremental supply entering the market

during our forecast period.

Figure 2: CRB Additions and Closures (2025-2028)

Source: Fastmarkets, Deutsche Bank Research

• CRB pricing continues to face headwinds from the SBS market: While

CRB market fundamentals have improved following a wave of

announced capacity closures, pricing remains challenged by conditions

in the broader paperboard market. Specifically, the North American SBS

market remains structurally oversupplied following major capacity

additions in recent years. In our view, one of the more important

conclusions from the model is that the CRB market may need not only

better supply/demand balance within CRB itself, but also a healthier SBS

market before pricing conditions fully normalize across the paperboard

sector.

• Demand recovery appears likely but does not fully offset new supply: Our

model forecasts shipment growth of approximately 4.1% in 2027 and

2.8% in 2028.