Euro PMI revised up in final read for June; RBNZ decision, Fed & ECB minutes this week

Research evidence excerpt

Euro PMI revised up in final read for June; RBNZ decision, Fed & ECB minutes this week

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

DBDaily 6 July 2026

Euro PMI revised up in final read for June;

Phil Odonaghoe RBNZ decision, Fed & ECB minutes this week

Economist

+61-2-8258-1606

Private investment boost to German GDP in 2027

European equities were stronger Friday, Stoxx600 up 0.7%. Oil little changed, up

0.4% in shortened session Friday. US markets were closed for a holiday.

Eurozone services PMI revised up 0.5pts to 49.4 in final read for June; composite

index at 50.0, also up 0.5pts from prelim read and 1.5pts from the May print.

Improvement in the final read could reflect a better assessment of conditions in

the Middle East.

ECB’s Moulin: Europe has seen “really soft growth”; does not expect a sharp

increase in Q2.

Parag Thatte’s measure of aggregate US equity positioning remained near

neutral last week. Positioning in large caps as well as in large-cap Tech rose from

neutral to modestly overweight, while small caps edged up and remained

modestly overweight.

Marc Schattenberg assesses the current state of investment momentum in

Germany, distinguishing between public investment and the quantitatively far

more important private sector investment. Overall, Marc thinks German fixed

investment could gain significant momentum in the second half of 2026 and could

increase by almost 4% on average in 2027. Alongside the tailwind from

government consumption expenditure, this should provide meaningful support

for GDP growth. DB sees 1.3% growth in 2027, following 0.5% in 2026.

The week ahead from DB’s global analysts

China inflation, and Germany activity data the highlights this week. From central

banks: ECB & Fed minutes, RBNZ policy decision (DB & consensus look for a

25bp hike).